A Patchwork Orange

A Rhode Island television (WPRI) station's poll shows that Kennedy is looking surprisingly vulnerable:

The poll shows 31 percent of those interviewed said they would “consider another” candidate and 28 percent said they would “vote to replace” Kennedy. Those who would re-elect the eight-term Congressman came in at 35 percent. Five percent weren’t sure.

A caveat: "The poll, conducted by Fleming & Associates for WPRI-12, interviewed 250 registered voters in Kennedy’s district and comes with a 6.2 percent margin of error." That's a bit bigger than I prefer. Interestingly, they polled Kennedy’s numbers statewide (Rhode Island has only two districts) and found that across the state, a mere 35 percent give Kennedy a favorable rating, with a 62 percent unfavorable rating; in his own district he has a 42 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable.

Kennedy's district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13, and Obama carried 65 percent of the vote in this district in 2008. It's tough sledding, but if the Kennedy name isn't carrying the same weight as it used to in Massachusetts, we can only wonder how effective it will be this year for a lawmaker who's a lot tougher on Capitol Hill security barriers than he is on, say, runaway spending.

But John Loughlin has some Scott-Brownian aspects of his background: was in the Army Reserves from January 1978 to November 2004, earning the rank of Lieutenant Colonel; saw duty in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1995 and 1996; former public affairs officer at NASA; runs a television production company... and spent a few years doing stand-up comedy. So unlike Kennedy, his remarks on the campaign trail will be intentionally funny.

I suppose there's always a chance that Kennedy could rehabilitate his image, but one wonders if voters will be comfortable with the same representation they have had since 1994, the distilled essence of Kennedy liberalism, at a time when the nation faces so many serious and sobering issues.